As the election date in Tamil Nadu has come to days from months, the state has been witnessing unprecedented race and heated politics between five fronts which are at the final stage of sealing the deal with the allied parties over seat-sharing and constituencies to form a potent coalition. Though the state has seen the emergence of five fronts, the marathon race for the reign is between the ruling ADMK and opposition DMK, and the latest pre-poll survey has poured the light on the race by displaying the possibilities of who would win the polls.
The pre-poll survey was carried out by Times Now- C Voter and the survey drive has not only covered Tamil Nadu but also put out the predictions on the other poll-bound states like Kerala, Puducherry, Assam, and West Bengal. As these elections will become one of the crucial elements of 2021, the pre-poll survey has predicted that the Central ruling BJP must brace up a huge setback in three big states -Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and West Bengal.
The results of the pre-poll survey were released on Monday in which it has been predicted that the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu will have a resounding victory in the assembly polls while ADMK would be pushed to face a backlash. According to the survey, the DMK-led alliance is expected to win as many as 158 seats, while the ADMK alliance will end up grabbing only 65 seats, which would a drastic decline for the party in five years.
Along with the Dravidian parties, the survey has predicted that Kamal Haasan's Makkal Needhi Maiam will win five seats while Dhinakaran's AMMK and other parties are expected to win three seats each and the category of other parties include Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi. On the front of vote shares, the survey has predicted that the DMK alliance will get 43.2% votes while the ADMK is predicted to get 32.1% of the votes.
Makkal Needhi Maiam is predicted to get 7.1% of the vote share and AMMK will get 6.5% while the other parties would get settled up for 11.1% of the vote share. Underlining DMK's victory has given a crucial push to revive back after a decade and though DMK's victory would be made possible by the appalling governance delivered by the ADMK at the state and BJP at the center, the victory for DMK would also bring MK Stalin the tag of the perfect successor for late DMK patriarch Karunanidhi.
The upcoming assembly poll is the first legislative election for MK Stalin as the DMK President and for Edappadi Palaniswami as the Chief Minister. The survey has poured hope to DMK to oust the ADMK's regime from the state. Through the survey, it can be learned that the DMK-led alliance is predicted to win 60 seats more than what it got in the 2016 polls while ADMK is predicted to end by getting 71 seats lower than the previous election.
It must be noted that the DMK had won 98 seats in 2016 while ADMK formed the government by getting 134 seats and of the total votes polled, the share of votes ADMK got was 40.77% in 2016 while the DMK has got 31.64% and in five years, the state is possibly going to witness a drastic reverse in these numbers with DMK coming back with a clear majority.
On the other side, the Times Now - C Voter survey has predicted that Mamata Banerjee will retain her power in West Bengal for the third consecutive term but with a slightly reduced majority. In what would become yet another blow to BJP, the survey has predicted that the ruling Leftist front in Kerala would win the polls and Pinarayi Vijayan will form a new government for another term. The survey has also poured some relief to BJP as the Central ruling party is predicted to retain the power in Assam and emerge victorious in Puducherry.
Earlier in January, the survey took by IANS C-Voter predicted that DMK is set to come to power in Tamil Nadu. It has said that the DMK alliance will win 162 seats while ADMK will end by getting 64 seats. Both the surveys had displayed that the ADMK-led alliance would prepare to face a debacle in the polls. Tamil Nadu is three days ahead of the commencement of filing nomination papers for the assembly polls and the state will go to the single-phase poll on April 6. Let's take a look at the election schedule in Tamil Nadu.
- Single-phase election for all the 234 constituencies
- Issue of Notification - March 12th, 2021.
- Last date of nomination - March 19th, 2021.
- Last date of scrutiny - March 20th, 2021.
- Last date for withdrawing nomination - March 22nd, 2021
- Date of Election - April 6th, 2021.
- Date of counting - May 2nd, 2021, during which the winner will be declared.
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