Amid the battle of curbing the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 will also witness a clash of titans in the race for taking over the reign as India is gearing up for five crucial polls on five different grounds filled with greeny grasses and hurting thorns. In what can be spelled as a race at its best, the national and regional parties are unleashing a real fight against the rivals to win the race with a clear majority.
The states of West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, and semi-state Puducherry will go for the assembly polls throughout April and the results in these states will be announced on May 2. Amid the heating campaigning from the political parties, there is no dearth of controversies and for the drive of leveling allegations from the political leaders on the campaign trail. As the polls are days ahead, the pre-poll surveys have become the talk of the town with the predictions of who will win the polls in these states.
The surveys have been meeting the voters in these states and presenting their predictions on who will win the polls. Some of the recent surveys had pushed several parties to brace up a setback as they were projected to face a debacle. Times Now had conducted the pre-poll survey in collaboration with C-Voter and the survey was conducted from March 17 to March 22, 2021. The survey had revealed some states would witness no anti-incumbency while other states would see the change in government. Let's take a look into the survey and who would win the polls in these states.
Tamil Nadu: Though the state is witnessing five fronts, the race is between the ruling ADMK and the opposition DMK alliance. Most of the pre-poll surveys had predicted that DMK will have a landslide victory. Likewise, the Times Now survey has projected that the DMK alliance will win 177 seats out of 234, 79 seats higher than what the party had won in the 2016 polls. On the other hand, ADMK will end up with a major setback as the survey has predicted that the ruling party will only get 49 seats, 87 seats lower than what it had got in 2016.
The setback was due to a larger dissent and disappointments against the ADMK, particularly with the Edappadi Palaniswami-led government over its style of governance filled with allegations and controversies. ADMK is contesting the polls with the BJP and the negative wave against the BJP in the state would also go against the state ruling party. On the other hand, the survey has projected that Kamal Haasan's Makkal Needhi Maiam and TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK would get three seats each in the upcoming assembly polls. The survey had also revealed that DMK President MK Stalin is the most suitable candidate to be the Chief Minister as 43.1% had voted for him while incumbent Edappadi Palaniswami got 29.7%.
West Bengal: One of the most watching elections, the Election Commission is at a Himalayan task in conducting the polls in the state and it can be evident in its decision of conducting the polls in eight phases, the highest in the state's history. Though the Communist Party and Congress are on the track, the real race is between the state ruling Trinamool Congress and the Central ruling BJP. The survey had predicted that Mamata's Trinamool Congress would face a slight backlash though it had a bright prospect of winning the polls.
According to the survey, Trinamool Congress is projected to win 160 seats in the upcoming polls, 51 seats lower than what it had got in the 2016 elections, and BJP is poured with the prospect of witnessing a huge spike as the survey had projected that the Central ruling party would win 112 seats, 109 seats more than what it had got in the preceding assembly elections. While Mamata is expected to form the government for the third consecutive time, the Congress party would witness a sharp plunge in the state. Around 55% of voters in West Bengal had said that Mamata Banerjee is the most suitable candidate for the post of Chief Minister.
Kerala: The coastal state is witnessing a cyclonic race between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). The survey has projected that the ruling LDF will win the Kerala polls with 77 seats in a house of 140 and Pinarayi Vijayan will retain the reign. On the other hand, the UDF is projected to win 62 seats. Though the BJP claims to be in the race, the Central ruling party won't have any good takeaways from the state.
Assam: The state ruling BJP is predicted to win the race and continue its regime. BJP had won in the 2016 polls and formed the government in the northeastern state for the first time. Though the BJP faces a downfall and debacle in the mainland, the party will likely end its campaign with a victory in Assam. The state has a less anti-incumbency wave against BJP and incumbent Sarbananda Sonowal is projected to retain the power.
According to the survey, BJP is set to form the government for the second consecutive term and the Central ruling party will get 69 seats in the assembly of 126. The Congress party is predicted to win 56 seats and while the BJP would win the state with 45% of vote share, its rival would end up with a 41.1% of vote share, finishing the race with no major injuries for both the parties.
Puducherry: The tiny semi-state has presented the nation that there is no shortage of huge political dramas as the senior Congress MLAs quitted the party and joined BJP and toppled the Congress government. The former French colony has been imposed with a presidential rule until the new government is formed and to form a new government, the Congress party and BJP are locking horns to win the majority mark in the 30-member assembly.
Along with Tamil Nadu, Puducherry will see a change of government, according to the survey, giving some reliefs and saffron for the BJP in South India. The survey had predicted that the BJP- ADMK- AINRC alliance will win the polls with 21 seats out of 30 seats. The UPA, made up of the Congress party and DMK, is expected to finish second with 9 seats and the BJP alliance is leading in Puducherry on all fronts. Around 50% of the voters in Puducherry had polled that N Rangasamy of the BJP alliance is the most suitable candidate to be the Chief Minister.
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